**Bitcoin vs. Gold: Corrective Phase May Bottom Near -26%, Upside Reversal Expected Late Year**
Bitcoin’s price relative to Gold is currently undergoing a corrective phase, but market watchers emphasize that this pullback does not yet signal a long-term downtrend. According to crypto analyst @that1618guy, the present structure mirrors past cycle retracements rather than a full breakdown, suggesting a typical pause before a potential upward movement.
BTC’s price against Gold recently fell from 125k to 110k, reflecting a moderate correction amid Gold’s strength. Historical data shows that major BTC/Gold declines have lasted anywhere from 91 to 413 days, with losses ranging between 57% and 68%. However, the current pullback has been under 30 days, indicating it is still in the early stages of the correction process.
Analysts highlight that shallow drawdowns like this tend to resolve within 70 to 98 days, meaning a price reversal could materialize by late November to late December. This timeline aligns with typical Bitcoin pullback durations observed in previous cycles.
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### EMA Crosses as Key Signals
The weekly 9 and 21 Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) have proven reliable in guiding BTC’s price cycles against Gold. When the 21 EMA crosses above the 9 EMA, Bitcoin typically enters a downside phase. Conversely, a 9 EMA crossing above the 21 EMA signals a new upside trend.
Currently, the pullback has lasted approximately 28 days, which is less than half of the common correction window. Analysts are watching closely for the 9 EMA to cross above the 21 EMA and hold, confirming a likely reversal.
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### Confirmation Through MACD and Stochastics
In addition to EMA crosses, weekly MACD flips turning green and upward-angled stochastics near or above 80 have coincided with previous successful BTC rallies. These technical markers provide a data-driven foundation for anticipating a potential bullish trend reversal.
Should divergence in these indicators persist through December, the possibility of a deeper correction remains. However, the current outlook favors a contained pullback that could bottom near a -26% drawdown before resuming upward momentum before year-end.
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### Historical Context and Outlook
Bitcoin versus Gold has experienced eight key downside EMA crosses historically. Large declines, such as those in 2018, 2020 (COVID-era), and 2022, followed similar technical patterns. Notably, the 2020 correction compressed the cycle, enabling a much faster recovery compared to other downturns.
Given this context, the current shallow correction appears typical and manageable. If standard EMA and momentum indicator patterns hold, the market may witness a price reversal in the final quarter of the year, resuming Bitcoin’s strength versus Gold.
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**Summary:**
– BTC/Gold corrective phase underway, currently a shallow pullback (~28 days).
– Correction duration often ranges 70-98 days, implying a potential late-year reversal.
– EMA crosses, weekly MACD, and stochastics serve as key technical confirmation tools.
– Historical large declines reached 57-68%, current drawdown projected near -26%.
– Analysts optimistic for recovery between November and December if technical signals validate.
Stay tuned as Bitcoin’s price action against Gold unfolds through the coming months, with data-driven signals providing crucial insights into the path ahead.
https://blockonomi.com/bitcoin-pullback-against-gold-could-end-with-year-end-upside-surge/