**Democrat Abigail Spanberger Maintains Lead Over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia Governor’s Race**
As Virginia’s governor’s race enters the final stretch, Democrat Abigail Spanberger continues to hold a lead over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, though the margin varies across recent polls. With just three days remaining until the election, Newsweek has compiled the latest polling data to provide insight into the race’s dynamics.
According to polling aggregator RealClearPolitics, Spanberger enjoyed an average lead of 7.4 points across eight major surveys as of Friday.
### Why This Election Matters
Virginia’s off-year elections often serve as early indicators of the national political mood. The 2021 election of Republican Glenn Youngkin was widely seen as a reaction against Democratic control in Washington and offered Republicans a blueprint for winning suburban swing voters.
Now, Democrats hope a victory by Spanberger can signal a resurgence of their coalition, particularly among women and college-educated independents.
### What the Polls Are Saying
A recent poll from Trafalgar/InsiderAdvantage conducted on October 28 reports Democrat Abigail Spanberger, former U.S. representative for Virginia’s 7th congressional district, leading Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, the state’s lieutenant governor, 46% to 42%—a 4-point margin.
Other recent surveys show varying degrees of Spanberger’s lead:
– Roanoke College: 10 points (51% to 41%)
– Christopher Newport University: 7 points (50% to 43%)
– Suffolk University: 9 points (52% to 43%)
– Quantus Insights: 5 points (51% to 46%)
– The Washington Post/Schar Poll: 12 points (54% to 42%)
– Co/efficient Poll: 5 points (49% to 44%)
– Earlier VCU Poll: 7 points (49% to 42%)
### Demographic Breakdown
The Trafalgar/InsiderAdvantage poll of 800 likely voters highlights stark demographic divides shaping the race.
– **Overall:** Spanberger leads 45.9% to 41.8%.
– **Gender:** Spanberger leads women by nearly 10 points (48.4% to 38.5%). Earle-Sears holds a slight lead among men (45.2% to 42.7%).
– **Race and Ethnicity:** Earle-Sears leads Hispanic voters (50% to 43.8%). Spanberger leads Black voters (45.1% to 35.2%) and voters identifying as “another race” by a wide margin (61.1% to 16.7%). White voters slightly favor Earle-Sears (45.1% to 44.1%).
Party affiliation remains sharply divided:
– Among Democrats, Spanberger commands 84.5% support, while Earle-Sears receives just 8.4%.
– Among Republicans, Earle-Sears holds 77.6% backing, with Spanberger pulling 10%.
– Among Independents, the race is effectively a toss-up, with Earle-Sears leading 40.8% to 39.4%—a margin within the poll’s ±3.4% margin of error.
### What’s Next?
Election Day is set for this Tuesday. Voters across Virginia will cast their ballots to decide the next governor, making these final days critical for both campaigns as they seek to mobilize their supporters.
Stay tuned for further updates as the election unfolds.
https://www.newsweek.com/who-winning-virginia-election-polls-10973469
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