Bitcoin’s $100,000 Line Is No Longer a Victory Lap — It’s a Stress Test
Mike McGlone of Bloomberg Intelligence highlights that the current market behavior around Bitcoin resembles what often happens before a major market break. While stocks remain relatively calm and volatility sits at historic lows, Bitcoin—despite its reputation for wild swings—is showing limited price movement.
In his latest Bloomberg note, McGlone refers to this unusual period as “extreme complacency.” He presents a chart comparing Bitcoin’s 50-week moving average trendline against two key market metrics: the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) and the S&P 500’s realized volatility. Both volatility measures rarely stay this subdued for long.
Currently, the VIX 50-week average hovers around 19. McGlone suggests that equities might soon “catch up” to this calm, implying that market turbulence could be closer than many traders realize.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has been stuck near the $100,000 mark, unable to break above $110,000. McGlone describes this phase as “Do or Die” for Bitcoin—meaning the cryptocurrency must either hold this level to prove its resilience or retreat toward its long-term average near $56,000.
Historically, every major Bitcoin cycle hits a cooling-off point exactly like this one. It’s when the hype fades and charts start showing signs of “mean reversion.”
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