Bitcoin Flashes Warning Signals Amid Death Cross and Rising Exchange Inflows
Bitcoin is showing some of its starkest warning signals since the last cycle peak. A fresh death cross, a bear-market roadmap extending into late 2026, and nearly 10,000 BTC rushing onto exchanges are prompting traders to rethink the current rally.
Bitcoin Death Cross Forms as Traders Weigh Mixed Signals
Bitcoin has printed a “death cross” on the daily chart as its 50-day moving average (MA) falls below the 200-day line, reigniting debate over what lies ahead for the market. This crossover, highlighted by analyst Borg Cryptos, appeared while BTC was trading near $96,000, with the 50-day MA around $110,323 and the 200-day MA near $110,455 on OKX’s BTCUSDT pair.
However, previous instances of this crossover have shown mixed results. In the last two occurrences, Bitcoin went on to stage strong rallies, with prices climbing sharply in the months following the signal. These rallies happened while the broader trend remained bullish and before a clear market peak had formed.
By contrast, Borg points out that when a similar crossover appeared after a cycle top during an earlier period, it coincided with the beginning of a prolonged bear market. This historical context influences how traders interpret the latest death cross signal. Some view it as a potential shakeout within a larger uptrend, while others see it as a warning sign of a deeper downturn ahead.
Trader Cameron Fous Projects Deep Bitcoin Bear Market Into Late 2026
Prominent trader Cameron Fous believes a Bitcoin bear market has already begun and forecasts a multi-year decline before the next major rally. In a recent BTC/USD weekly chart, he suggests a potential bottom between $57,000 and $37,000 around December 2026. Fous advises followers to “prepare to buy that dip” once the price reaches this target zone.
His chart draws on patterns from earlier peaks in 2018 and 2022, which were followed by declines lasting roughly 12 to 14 months and retracing into the 0.5–0.786 Fibonacci range. Applying this framework, Fous projects a similar path from the current cycle high: Bitcoin breaking below its key moving average and then sliding into a green support box between $57,000 and $37,000.
Fous also anticipates a recovery once that zone is reached. After the projected low in late 2026, Bitcoin is expected to base at these Fibonacci levels before gradually climbing toward new all-time highs. His scenario frames the latest sell-off as the early phase of a larger downtrend and suggests that the next major accumulation opportunity may only arise after an extended period of weakness.
Bitcoin Exchange Inflows Spike as Nearly 10,000 BTC Enter Trading Platforms
More than 10,000 Bitcoin—worth nearly $1 billion—have moved onto centralized exchanges within the past 72 hours, according to on-chain analyst Ali. This spike is visible in Santiment data, which tracks exchange supply, inflows, and BTC’s spot price over the same timeframe.
Exchange supply has increased as these coins move from cold storage into markets where they can be sold or redeployed. Concurrently, Bitcoin’s price action has weakened, with the rise in inflows aligning with sharper intraday swings.
Analysts often interpret such surges as signs of rising short-term risk, since large holders typically transfer funds onto exchanges before executing significant trades.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s latest technical setup and on-chain activity suggest heightened volatility and uncertainty. The death cross and increased exchange inflows hint at potential downside risks, while longer-term projections from analysts like Cameron Fous advise caution and patience before the next major accumulation phase.
Traders and investors should monitor these developments closely and consider both historical context and market dynamics as they navigate the evolving Bitcoin landscape.
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