In a discussion dating back to November 14th, a prominent crypto analyst highlighted Bitcoin’s crucial defense of the 50-week moving average, while warning of a potential drop to lower levels. According to the analyst, such a slump would bring BTC down to the 100-week MA, and in a deeper bear market, possibly to the 200-week MA. Over the past month, this prediction has played out: the 50 and 100-week moving averages have been tested, with the 100-week MA currently providing strong support. At the time of writing, the 100-week MA is located around $85,500, closely aligning with BTC’s $84,000–$85,000 demand zone.
Beimnet Abebe of Galaxy Trading was the analyst behind these forecasts. He further noted his willingness to buy Bitcoin [BTC] at prices below the $80,000 mark, underscoring his confidence in the asset’s long-term potential.
Is Crypto Losing Its Appeal?
Amid price fluctuations, concerns have emerged regarding Bitcoin’s overall relevance and appeal. A viral post on X, by user InvestingLuc, recounted a possibly apocryphal story illustrating why “crypto isn’t cool anymore.” The real question posed: “Does real-world crypto utility generate enough demand to offset a sustained decline in retail participation?”
Recent data shows social media engagement for crypto has dropped. While rising institutional interest in Bitcoin is encouraging for widespread adoption, it also raises concerns that crypto may be drifting from its original, decentralized, permissionless ethos—a quality that drew early adopters to BTC. There’s a palpable sense that Bitcoin is losing some of the identity that once captured widespread fascination.
Reduced Volatility and Its Implications
On CNBC’s Squawk Box, Professional Capital Management founder Anthony Pompliano commented that Bitcoin’s volatility appears to have halved compared to previous years. Spot BTC ETF flows have been largely negative since the crash on October 10th, but the profound 70-80% drawdowns that characterized previous bear cycles may not repeat, thanks largely to institutional investors.
For context, Bitcoin’s drawdown from its $126,000 high to $84,000 represents a more restrained 33.3% drop. Notably, this retracement occurred while traditional equity markets such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, as well as precious metals, neared or surpassed their all-time highs.
Some analysts argue that reduced volatility, while preventing severe drawdowns, also inhibits the “bubble-like” rallies of past cycles. For example, Axel Adler Jr.’s True MVRV metric on CryptoQuant peaked at just 2.17 in 2024, failing to rise above 2 even as new all-time highs were recorded. This muted response may be attributed to ETF flows not impacting on-chain metrics, along with more participation from institutional “smart money” and Bitcoin’s ongoing market maturation.
As a result, volatility is lower compared to previous cycles, and holders appear more willing to realize profits and exit positions.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin’s landscape is evolving, with increased institutional participation and maturing market dynamics leading to reduced volatility. While this brings stability, it may also signal the fading of some of crypto’s original excitement and ethos. The future of Bitcoin—and crypto as a whole—may depend on its real-world utility and the delicate balance between growing adoption and maintaining the spirit of decentralization.
https://bitcoinethereumnews.com/bitcoin/analysts-bitcoin-price-predictions-for-q1-2026-isnt-cool-anymore/